Scenarios for the Philippine Agri-Food System with and without Tariffication: Application of a CGE model with Endogenous Area Allocation

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This paper presents an application of a CGE model to analyze scenarios covering the SDG period at the level of the Philippine economy and for its agri-food sectors. Unlike previous CGE models, the analysis incorporates endogenous area allocation under an aggregate land constraint. The baseline scenario finds that growth patterns prevailing since the 2010s can be sustained within the SDG period assuming productivity trends industry and service sectors continue. Unfortunately, the scenario also implies that the mediocre growth performance of agriculture will likewise be sustained into the foreseeable future. Using the CGE model, the study also finds that tariffication is disadvantageous to the palay sector, based on various indicators—area harvested, yield, and production. Nevertheless, the overall growth of GDP as well as household per capita expenditure rises with greater openness to rice imports.