Mindanao has been expecting to suffer from power outages again this summer after no additional capacity came on stream, according to a study by state-run Philippine Institute of Development Studies (PIDS). PIDS senior research fellow Adoracion Navarro said the demand for power in Mindanao has spiked through the years with rapid urbanization and increased industrialization. Forecasts for 2010-2019 showed an annual average demand growth of 4.28 percent in Mindanao, higher than the national average of 3.63 percent. Mindanao’s peak demand could reach 1,428 MW this year and 1, 823 MW by 2019. To meet peak demand and, at the same time, maintain security and reliability of the power grid, generation capacity must not only correspond to peak demand but also provide for other ancillary services. The DOE requires a reserve margin of at least 21 percent of peak demand. The total generation capacity consequently should be 1,728 MW in 2013 and 2,206 MW in 2019. The dependable capacity in Mindanao stands at 1,616 MW. This means the area could suffer a reserve shortfall of 112 MW for this year, indicating that outages could happen in the coming months.
